"AD After Disclosure" by Richard M Dolan and Bryce Zabel

 This book is a mixture of fiction and speculation; it suggests possible future scenarios for a world after the 'Disclosure' that UFOs exist, that they carry aliens to this world, and that there has been a decades-long inter-governmental programme of secrecy to hide these facts from the general public.

Whether UFOs do actually exist and whether there has been a cover-up are questions that the book doesn't really address. If either of these assumptions are false, their arguments collapse. So let's look at the evidence that they do present.

• They cite "thousands of professional witnesses, such as law enforcement, military pilots, and even astronauts.” (Ch 1) It always seems important for these sorts of books to establish the credibility of what is almost always anecdotal evidence by describing the witnesses as 'professional' or by giving job titles that suggest their reliability. In later chapters they cite senior politicians. Other examples include: "higher level military and Intelligence personnel" (Ch 1); one of the Roswell witnesses (as a child of twelve) is described as “a woman with impeccable credibility and decency” although the ‘decency’ is irrelevant and there is no evidence proffered to support the ‘impeccable credibility’ (Ch 2); “Serious researchers of UFOs agree that these craft appear to negate the Earth's gravity.” (Ch 5) in which presumably those who do not agree with the point they are making are relegated to the category of 'unserious researchers'. 
• “Most people now reject the theory that all sightings can be explained away” (Ch 1) But truth isn't a democratic choice by which what 'most people' believe is true. Once, most people believed the world was flat. But it isn't. (At the same time they often argue that minorities can be right; that even if 99% of UFO phenomena can be explained, the ones that can't should be sufficient to lead to a paradigm shift in our thinking.)
• Another classic rhetorical device that they use is to give alternatives that are to be rejected before concluding in favour of your own thesis. Having swept away manifest untruths, they conclude that their solution  must be true. But there are always alternatives that they don't put forward.
• When they state their thesis, they often downgrade it so that is becomes acceptable, as in the phrase "Some UFOs appear to be ...” (Ch 1)
• They often ask questions, such as "can we really believe that a secret such as the presence of an alien intelligence on Earth can continue to remain hidden and undisclosed?” (Ch 1) Note that this question also includes the unchallenged assumption that there is “the presence of an alien intelligence on Earth”. 
• When they discuss what they assert is a culture of secrecy in the US, the implied syllogism is this:
• There are some things that are classified secrets.
• The evidence for UFOs might be a classified secret.
• Therefore UFOs have been discovered but are being kept secret.
• Clearly this argument is flawed. Nevertheless, they build on it to the extent of asserting that there exists “A significant ‘built-off-the-grid’ infrastructure, partially underground, that affords them a high degree of secrecy and independence of action.” (Ch 2) with no evidence for this claim whatsoever. 
• When they discuss the infamous Roswell incident, they assert "authentic wreckage was swapped out for a weather balloon” (Ch 3); I would rewrite this as ‘allegedly authentic’ and ‘allegedly swapped’ unless evidence was to be presented. 

A readable book but it contains a number of examples of rhetoric replacing reason.

Selected quotes:

• “It is always the nail that sticks out that gets hammered.” (Ch 2)
• “Humans are a very adaptable species. When our living conditions change, whether it involves going to prison or winning the lottery, we alter our attitudes and expectations.” (Ch 5)
• “Humanity needs a post-oil economy; humanity fears a post-oil economy.” (Ch 5)
• “Scientific conclusions are always provisional. They are subject to change when new evidence is presented. This may be an emotional drawback for those who demand certainty in their lives, but ... it is an advantage over the long term.” (Ch 7)

June 2024; 315 pages

This review was written by the author of Bally and Bro, Motherdarling  and The Kids of God