"The New Silk Roads" by Peter Frankopan

 A sort of economic history of the future world, this book considers the shift in global economic power from the Atlantic to the Pacific, in particular considering the economic rise of China whose GDP on a “purchasing power parity” basis has risen from 39% of the US in 2001 to 114% in 2016. This phenomenal growth has been achieved by investing in infrastructure, particularly energy and transport. And this is a story seen in other nations too, for example in India. But not in the West. Frankopan states that according to the OECD “not one of the ten fastest-growing economies of 2017 is located in the western hemisphere, nor has one been for the last decade.” (The Roads to the East)

Now China is seeking to export its economics to the world. To safeguard its growing demand for food, it is purchasing food producers in other Asian countries and in Africa and Australia. And it is investing over a trillion US dollars, again principally in transportation and energy production, in over 80 countries in central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Caribbean. Their shipping initiatives alone could reduce shipment times by an average of 12% and trading costs by 10%. 

There are downsides and not just the environmental impact. The China investment programme risks feeding corrupt elites and saddling poor countries with unsustainable debts (which have led to the Chinese seizing control of national assets including territory). And many of the countries “have poor records on human rights, limited freedom of expression in matters of faith, conscience and sexuality, and control their media.” (The Roads to the Future) But when the West's response to, for example, human rights violations is to wield the big stick and impose sanctions, the Chinese are poised to offer help, increasing their economic power and weakening that of the West.

Indeed, the West is shown to be almost totally outplayed in this game. Sometimes they don't even realise what is happening. “The relentless focus on the White House, on Brexit and on the day's latest breaking news ... means there is limited focus on what is going on elsewhere in the world.” (The Roads to the Heart of the World) When they do react it is often to shoot themselves in the foot. Trump's sanctioning of Iran and attempts to sanction those who traded with Iran pushed a number of countries including Russia and Turkey towards China. The UK concern over immigration has meant that “More anglophone students from across Africa now take courses in China than they do in either the UK or the US.” (The Roads to Beijing) “Compared with the Silk Roads and Asia, Europe is not so much moving at a different speed as in a different direction. Where the story in Asia is about increasing connections, improving collaboration and deepening co-operation, in Europe the story is about separation, the re-erection of barriers and ‘taking back control’.” (The Roads to the Future) Profound Eurocentrism betrays a lack of historical perspective and is “symptomatic of the melancholy that accompanies the setting of the sun in a part of the world that has enjoyed the benefits of centuries basking in its warm rays.” (The Roads to the Future)

Already much of the world view the West with deep suspicion. The US, for example, is viewed as responsible for the instability in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. They are seen as wanting to prevent the change that is lifting so many out of poverty. “Those most incentivized to apply the brakes are those with the most to lose - namely the west, which having been asleep at the wheel now wants to return to ‘ normal’ and expects the newcomers to resume their old positions in the world order.” (The Roads to the Future) As a consequence of these perceptions, they are losing friends. “It is striking to note just how few true allies the US has around the world, and how even long-term partners question it's basic reliability.” (The Roads to the Future)

As someone who values liberal democracy and the right to free speech, not to mention my comfortable way of life, this book made me profoundly fearful for the future. But it is cogently argued and the conclusions seem inescapable. “As new connections forge and old links are renewed ... the west is in danger of becoming less and less relevant. When the west does engage in playing a role, it is invariably to intervene or interfere in ways that create more problems than they solve - or to place obstacles and restrictions in place that limit the growth and prospects of others.” (The Roads to the Future)

The only thing that makes sense is for us to play the same game as the Chinese. We need to invest in infrastructure, especially transport links and renewable energy. We need to invest in making friends (and trading partners) around the world instead of becoming defensive and pulling up the drawbridge. We even have to accept that our own lifestyles must be sustainable and on the basis of equality with others around the world. As Chinese president Xi Jinping says, "
the real enemy 'is not the neighboring country; it is hunger, poverty, ignorance, superstition and prejudice’.” (The Roads to the Future)

An eye-opening book. April 2024; 289 pages

This review was written by the author of Bally and Bro, Motherdarling  and The Kids of God